Petrol cars in Pakistan sold 10,939 units in September. One electric car sold 42.
Those two numbers tell you more about this market than any forecast for 2035 does.
An American industry report has been widely quoted this month as predicting petrol will still take 64 percent of US sales in 2035. It is worth knowing what that report actually says.
What the SEMA Report Actually Says
We read the 2026 Future Trends report in full, looking for the percentages.
They are not in it. The report contains no 2035 powertrain breakdown at all.
What it says on the subject is one line: internal combustion engine vehicles will remain a dominant force for years to come.
That is a direction, not a number. The 64 percent figure comes from an industry analysis of the report rather than from the report itself.
So treat it as one firm's reading, and treat the headline attributing it to the association as loose.
Which does not make the analysis wrong. It just means nobody official has forecast that number.
The Forecast, and the Eight Percent Nobody Explains
The figures in circulation put petrol at around 64 percent of US new light-vehicle sales in 2035.
Hybrids take about 14 percent and battery electric vehicles about 14 percent.
Add those up and you get 92. Eight percent of the forecast is unaccounted for, and the published figures do not say what it is.
It could be diesel, plug-in hybrids, fuel cells or something else. We are not going to guess.
The shape of it matters more than the precision. Petrol at 64 percent is more than twice hybrid and electric combined.
And this is a United States forecast. Not a global one, and certainly not a Pakistani one.
Petrol Cars in Pakistan: September Was Worse Than It Looked
Now the local picture, which is where the real news is.
Passenger car sales came to 10,939 units in September, against 13,717 in August.
That is a fall of 20.3 percent in a single month. Year on year the drop is 9.8 percent, from 12,126.
You may see a much gentler figure quoted, somewhere near a four percent dip. That number does not hold up.
The verified total reconciles internally, which is how you check a figure like this.
Cars of 1,300cc and above came to 6,947, those under 1,000cc to 3,812, the 1,000cc class to 138, and electric to 42.
Those four add to exactly 10,939. A total that adds up is worth more than one that sounds better.
Why the Model Table Does Not Add Up
Here is a trap worth knowing about if you follow monthly sales reporting.
September's headline groups were Suzuki Alto at 3,354, Toyota's Corolla, Yaris and Corolla Cross at 3,563, and Honda's City and Civic at 2,021.
Then Sazgar's Haval and Tank at 2,474, and Toyota's Fortuner and IMV models at 579.
Add all five and you get 11,991. That is more than the entire passenger car market of 10,939, which is impossible.
The reason is category. Haval, Tank, Fortuner and the IMV models are not passenger cars.
They belong to a separate jeeps, pickups and SUVs count, which recorded 4,165 units that month.
So the real car picture is Alto, Toyota and Honda at 8,938 of the 10,939, with about 2,001 across everything else.
Mix the two categories and you inflate the market by thousands of units. Which is exactly how a 20 percent fall gets reported as four.
Forty-Two Cars
The electric line in that data is the one worth sitting with.
One electric passenger car appears in September's figures. It sold 42 units.
That is 0.38 percent of the month's car sales.
Pakistan's National Electric Vehicle Policy 2025–30 targets 30 percent of new vehicle sales being electric by 2030.
Set 30 percent against 0.38 and the target is roughly 78 times the current level in cars. In four years.
One caveat matters, and it cuts in the policy's favour. That 30 percent covers new vehicle sales, not cars alone.
The subsidised volume behind it is overwhelmingly two- and three-wheelers, with roughly 116,000 electric bikes and 3,171 rickshaws funded for this financial year.
So the target is far more reachable on bikes than on cars. Which tells you something important about what electrification here will actually look like.
It will arrive on two wheels long before it arrives on four.
Thirty Percent Here, Fourteen There
Put the two markets side by side and the ambition is striking.
The American projection has battery electric vehicles at about 14 percent of new sales in 2035.
Pakistan is aiming for 30 percent by 2030, which is more than twice that share, five years earlier.
And the categories differ, as above, so this is not a like-for-like race.
But the American half of that comparison comes with a warning in the report's own words.
Electric vehicle adoption there is described as slowing, on cost concerns and infrastructure challenges.
That is the market with the chargers and the purchasing power. It is worth noticing what is slowing it.
Hybrids as the Middle Ground
The report's phrase for hybrids is a practical middle ground, and it is gaining traction.
That logic travels better to Pakistan than the electric one does.
A hybrid needs no charger, no home wiring and no route planning. It runs on the fuel already in every town.
So it removes the two obstacles that actually stop people buying electric here.
The trade-offs are real though. A higher purchase price, a battery with its own warranty terms, and fewer workshops that know the system.
And the saving depends on how you drive. Hybrids repay stop-start city traffic far better than steady motorway running.
Which, in Lahore or Karachi, is an argument in their favour.
Why Petrol Will Stay a While Here
Three things keep petrol dominant in Pakistan, and none of them is sentiment.
Price first. The cheapest cars in the market are small petrol cars, and the Alto alone was nearly a quarter of September's sales.
Fuel availability second. There is a pump in every town and a charger in very few.
Workshops third, and this is the one people underrate. Every mechanic in the country can fix a petrol engine.
That network took decades to build and it has not been rebuilt for batteries yet.
None of this argues against electric cars. It explains why the transition will be slower on four wheels than the target implies.
What This Means for Keeping a Car
There is a quieter point in the report that matters more to most owners than any forecast.
Vehicles are staying on the road longer than ever. That is true here too, and for longer.
So whatever 2035 looks like, the car in your driveway today will probably still be there.
Which makes maintenance, parts and sensible upgrades the practical question, rather than which powertrain wins.
One caution on the newer cars. Driver assistance systems are becoming close to standard, and they change what a repair involves.
Cameras and sensors sitting behind bumpers, grilles and windscreens may need recalibration after work in those areas. Worth asking before any job near them.
Figures That Are American, Not Pakistani
A short note, because these numbers get quoted loose.
The report's fleet figure of more than 295 million vehicles is the United States. So is light trucks and crossovers taking over 80 percent of new sales.
So is the specialty equipment market at 52.65 billion dollars, growing at three to four percent a year.
And so are the financing rates it quotes, around 7.6 percent on new vehicles and 11.4 percent on used.
None of those describe Pakistan. They are useful as a picture of a mature market, and misleading as anything else.
Final Thoughts
The forecast being quoted everywhere is an industry reading of an American report, and the report itself publishes no percentages. What it does say is that combustion engines will stay dominant for years and that electric adoption is slowing on cost and infrastructure. Both of those travel to Pakistan more easily than a 2035 number does.
The local figures say it better anyway. Passenger cars fell 20.3 percent in a month to 10,939 units. One electric car sold 42. The 2030 target is 30 percent of new vehicle sales. Electrification here will arrive on bikes and rickshaws first. Hybrids will do the work on four wheels for a while. And the petrol car you already own will need looking after throughout.
15+ years in business · In-house fitting in Multan · Nationwide delivery · Exact-fit products, never universal
Questions about what fits your car? Contact us — 0321-1117525 · Open Mon–Sun, 9am–9pm.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did SEMA predict petrol cars would be 64 percent of sales in 2035?
Not in those terms. Its 2026 report expects combustion engines to stay dominant well into the future, but publishes no 2035 percentages at all. That 64 percent number was produced by a trade publication reading the report.
How many cars sold in Pakistan in September 2026?
Passenger car sales were 10,939 units, down 20.3 percent from August's 13,717 and 9.8 percent lower than a year earlier. Jeeps, pickups and SUVs are counted separately, at 4,165 units.
Why do model figures sometimes exceed the market total?
Because SUV and pickup groups get listed alongside car groups, then added against a passenger-car total. Haval, Tank, Fortuner and the IMV models sit in the separate jeeps and pickups count, so including them inflates the market.
How many electric cars sell in Pakistan?
In September one electric passenger car appeared in the official data, with 42 units sold. That is under half a percent of the month's car sales, which is the scale the 2030 target has to be read against.
What is Pakistan's EV target for 2030?
Thirty percent of new vehicle sales. Note the wording: all new vehicles, not cars alone. The funded volume is mostly electric bikes and rickshaws, so the target is far easier on two wheels than on four.
Will petrol cars remain popular in Pakistan?
For the foreseeable future, yes. The cheapest cars here are small petrol cars, fuel is available everywhere, and every workshop can service a petrol engine. Those three advantages take years to displace.
Are hybrids a better choice than petrol here?
They can be, because they need no charging infrastructure and suit stop-start traffic. Against that, weigh the higher price, the battery warranty terms and whether a workshop near you can service the system.
What is the difference between petrol, hybrid and electric cars?
A petrol car runs on an internal combustion engine alone. A hybrid pairs that engine with an electric motor and a small battery, charging itself as it drives. A battery electric car has no engine and is charged from the mains.
What is ADAS and why does it affect repairs?
Advanced driver assistance systems cover features such as automatic braking, lane assistance and blind-spot monitoring. They rely on cameras and sensors that may need recalibration after bodywork, glass or bumper repairs.
Do the American figures in that report apply to Pakistan?
No. The fleet size, the crossover share of sales, the aftermarket value and the financing rates all describe the United States. They are useful for comparison and misleading if read as local numbers.
